海岛城市收缩测度与动因—–舟山岱山岛案例

去工业化、郊区化、老龄化等冲击下的城市收缩现象在世界范围内爆发, 引起了城市规划、地理学和社会学各界的关注. 中国岛屿众多, 岛屿城镇的收缩认知及其成因分析对于实现国家海洋战略与海疆长治久安具有重要价值. 以中国舟山市岱山岛(辖高亭镇、东沙镇、岱西镇和岱东镇)为例, 运用统计方法分析人口、经济视阈城镇收缩现象, 解析动因及其机理. 研究发现 (1)岱山岛2006~2016年人口年均增长为-2.65%, 是典型的城镇隐性收缩; 经济核心指标(产业产值、人均GDP、建成区面积)持续正增长, 这与西方学界以城市衰退为判据的“收缩城市”存在本质差异; 与中国大陆城市收缩相比, 存在人口、经济变化率小等特征. (2)岱山岛城市收缩的二元特征集中体现在人口负增长与经济、土地利用快速正增长悖论, 经济增长与城市扩张受工农业结构调整和城市集中建设、国家政策影响深远, 工农业生产总值及其变化率对城市收缩正向影响最大, 工业生产总值及其变化率对城市收缩负向影响最大. (3)海岛城市收缩动力源于海岛人口与产业间的资源竞争, 海岛资源短缺导致产业与居民期望脱钩, 海岛的自身短板与高速发展的教育拉升了年轻人与家庭的就业期望.

Measurement and motivation of island city shrinkage: A case study of Daishan Island,Zhoushan City

As the consequence of de-industrialization, suburbanization, and aging, the phenomenon of urban shrinkage has been more and more noted worldwide, which has attracted the attention of urban planning, geography and social sciences communities. There are many is lands in China, and the knowledge about the shrinkage island towns and the analysis of its causes are of great value to the realization of the national maritime strategy and the long-term stability of the seas. Taking Daishan Island in Zhoushan City of China, where Gaoting Town, Dongsha Town, Daixi Town and Daidong Town are under its jurisdiction, as an example, the mathematical statistics are used to analyze the phenomenon of urban shrinkage in population and economic perspectives, and also analyze the causes and mechanisms behind the phenomenon. The research findings suggest that (1)Daishan Island’s average annual negative population growth from 2006 to 2019 is -2.65%, which is a typical “urban recessive contraction”. The core economic indicators such as industrial output value, per capita GDP, built-up area continued to grow positively, which is in line with results of Western academic reports. “Shrinking cities” as an urban decline are essentially different in causes. Compared with the shrinking cities in mainland China, the characteristics of the contraction are identified such as small population and economic change rates. (2)The dual characteristics of urban shrinkage on Daishan Island are found in contradicting the negative population growth against the rapid positive growth in economy and land use. Economic growth and urban expansion are influenced by such factors as industrial and agricultural structure adjustment, urban centralized construction, and national policies. The gross industrial and agricultural production (rate of change) has the greatest positive impact on urban contraction, while the gross industrial production alone (rate of change) has a negative impact on urban contraction. (3)The driving force of contraction comes from the resource competition between island population and industries, the industries affected by island resource shortage decouple from residents’ expectation, as well as the island’s own intrinsic disadvantages.