基于投入产出模型的洪涝灾害间接经济损失定量分析

以1998年洪涝灾害给湖南省农业部门造成的经济损失为例,应用投入产出法定量分析了洪涝灾害对部门经济冲击下的产业关联损失.从供给和需求的角度对灾害造成的直接和间接损失进行评估,并构建供给需求影响矩阵,完善了产业关联损失仅考虑需求单方面的不足.通过计算得到湖南省农业因洪涝灾害的总损失达到503.15亿元,超过同年全省地方财政收入的3倍.农业部门的供给端和需求端的间接损失分别超过直接经济损失的34.5%和47.3%.随着社会经济的融合度增加,灾害导致的产业关联的经济损失逐步增大,研究灾害对经济系统结构的破坏将对行业灾后恢复重建提供有益参考.

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF INDIRECT ECONOMIC LOSS TO FLOOD DISASTER BASED ON AN INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL

Formulation of regional disaster-reduction countermeasures relies on accurate assessments of regional economic loss to disaster.Agricultural loss to flood disaster in Hunan in 1998 was taken as an example.Input-output method was used to calculate indirect loss in agriculture and in other industries.Direct and indirect losses to flood disaster were evaluated for supply and demand.Demand and supply influence matrix was constructed,mproving industrial losses that only considered shortage of unilateral demand.Thus total of agricultural loss to flood disaster was 50.32 billion RMB yuan,more than three times of the local fiscal revenue of the that year.The indirect loss in supply and demand in agriculture was more than 34.5% and 47.3% of direct loss respectively.With increasing alignment of social economy and economic loss due to disasters,researching disaster damage to economy and structure will provide guidelines for post-disaster reconstruction.