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Boole''s conditions of possible experience and reasoning under uncertainty
Authors:Pierre Hansen, Brigitte Jaumard,Marcus Poggi de Arag  o
Affiliation:

a GERAD École des Hautes Études Commerciales, 5255 avenue Decelles, Montréal, Qué., Canada H3T 1V6

b GERAD, École Polytechnique de Montréal, Départment de Mathématiques Appliquées, Succursale A, Case Postale 6079, Montréal, Qué., Canada H3C 3A7

c Computer Science Department, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, DCC/IMECC/UNICAMP, C.P. 6065, Campinas SP, Brazil 13081-970

Abstract:Consider a set of logical sentences together with probabilities that they are true. These probabilities must satisfy certain conditions for this system to be consistent. It is shown that an analytical form of these conditions can be obtained by enumerating the extreme rays of a polyhedron. We also consider the cases when (i) intervals of probabilities are given, instead of single values; and (ii) best lower and upper bounds on the probability of an additional logical sentence to be true are sought. Enumeration of vertices and extreme rays is used. Each vertex defines a finear expression and the maximum (minimum) of these defines a best possible lower (upper) bound on the probability of the additional logical sentence to be true. Each extreme ray leads to a constraint on the probabilities assigned to the initial set of logical sentences. Redundancy in these expressions is studied. Illustrations are provided in the domain of reasoning under uncertainty.
Keywords:Linear programming   Probabilistic satisfiability   Vertex and ray enumeration   Analytical solution
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