关于湖北省节能的投入产出分析

运用投入产出法,对湖北省达成"十一五"节能目标的万元GDP综合能耗进行了分能源品种的分解,对湖北省未来五年的能源经济指标进行了预测和分析.首先,本文把64部门的2002年湖北省投入产出表整理成6部门的投入产出表,推测出2005年湖北省能源生产和消费指标,分析了湖北省能源供需的基本形势.其次,本文以实现"十一五"期间万元GDP综合能耗降低20%为目标,对不同GDP增长率下的能源需求情景进行了预测,计算了湖北省2010年分品种的万元GDP综合能耗、能源消费弹性系数等指标,分析了不同能源品种对单位GDP综合能耗下降的贡献程度.最后本文提出了政策建议,并指出模型的发展方向.

Input-output Analysis of Energy Efficiency Reservation for the Case of Hubei Province

This paper constructs an input-output model,and discomposes the energy intensity by variety for the purpose of achieving the energy efficiency target of ″11th five″ year planning period,and forecasts the energy economy indicators in the future five years for the case of Hubei province.Firstly,this paper sorts out the 6 sectors input-output table from 64 sectors input-output table in 2002 of Hubei province.The basic indicators of Hubei province' energy production and consumption in 2005 are estimated.The synthetic energy intensity per GDP is decomposed by variety.The basic situation of Hubei province' energy demand is analyzed.Secondly,this paper numerically forecasts energy demand scenarios in the future five years by different GDP growth rate.The energy intensity,elasticity of energy consumption and other energy economic indicators are calculated by variety in 2010.Then the contribution level of energy intensity dropping is analyzed.Finally,the policy proposal is suggested,and developing direction of this model is pointed out.