近60年玛纳斯河径流变化规律的分析

玛纳斯河是该流域绿洲生存的命脉，流域上游山区形成的径流是供给中下游平原及绿洲区的重要水源。本文根据玛纳斯河流域上游肯斯瓦特水文站1955-2010年系列径流资料，利用Mann—Kendall非参数统计检验和小波分析方法对近60年玛河径流年内、年际变化特征进行分析。结果表明：玛纳斯河径流年内分配极不均匀，主要集中在6-8月，在季节分配上，夏季径流量最丰，其次是秋季，冬季径流最小；径流年际变化大，径流变化具有明显的周期性及阶段性，丰枯时期显著，并存在32年、10年左右的主周期；近60年玛纳斯河径流量总体呈增加趋势，而且在1995年发生突变，即从1995年玛纳斯河开始趋于丰水趋势。

Runoff Characteristics of Manas River in the Past 60 years

Manas River is the lifeblood for oasis survival of the river basin,because the runoff generated in the upper Manas Riv- er basin is important water resource for the middle and lower reaches. Based on the yearly runoff series（1955-2010）of the Ken- siwate hydrological gauging station on the upper Manas River Basin, Mann Kendall nonparametric statistical tests and wavelet analysis methods were adopted to analyze the inter annual, annual variation characteristics of the runoff in recently 60 years. The results showed that：distribution of annual runoff was uneven, mainly in June ,July and August. As for the seasonal distribution of runoff,summer is the most abundant, followed by autumn, spring and winter. The inter-annual variations were great, with significant difference between the wet year and dry year. Annual runoff changes had obvious stages and the tendency of annual runoff increasing was significant. And annual runoff changes showed main period of 32 years or 10 years. Manas River runoff in recently 60 years showed an upward trend, with an abrupt point in 1995,when Manas river runoff showed a trend of increase, the Manas River in the wet season from 2004 to 2018.