产业关联分析动态网络模型

投入产出关联效应分析模型应用完全经济关联关系的概念,较为全面的反映了产业部门间的关联关系.然而,传统的投入产出关联效应分析对产业部门间的关联关系做了简化处理,并没有考虑经济活动的传导时滞因素所产生的动态影响,这种处理方式使模型的应用受到较多限制.利用有向加权网络工具,考虑经济活动的传导时滞,构建了产业关联分析动态网络模型.该模型与传统投入产出模型相比具有以下三个特点:一是考虑了产业部门间及部门内部传导时滞的作用,对部门间关联效应及传导过程作了动态描述,使其关联关系更加符合实际;二是可计算任意时点上一个部门产量的变化对系统中各部门关联效应的大小;三是该模型经济含义直观,易于理解,且易于利用计算机仿真模拟.

Industry Interrelated Analysis with Dynamic Network Model

The traditional Input-Output Inter-industry Model uses matrices to describe and analyze the completed inter-industry relationships including direct and indirect effects.However, the traditional model is only a static model.It cannot reflect the dynamic characteristics with time.This paper uses the Directed Weighted Network to construct the Dynamic Network Model in order to analyze the inter-industry relations by taking the temporal dimension into account.Compared to the traditional Input-Output Model,this model contributes to following tree points.First,this model considers the inter-industry impact with time delay,so that it can illustrate the process with higher accuracy.Second,this model can conduct the dynamic industry interrelated analysis at any time,and the traditional model is an asymptotical special case when the time is approaching to infinity.Third,this model is not limited by the two-dimensional matrix algorithm,and it can be simulate in low computational complexity.