基于随机模型的区域产业资本漂移研究

资本是产业系统的"血液",是产业实现可持续发展的重要内因变量.在利益驱动下,产业资本会随机地发生漂移.采用Markov方法研究区域产业资本漂移这一随机过程,利用产业资本的转移概率得到了产业资本周转时间的均值和方差,也给出了资本支持某产业发展时间的均值和方差,进而推导出了产业资本的产出率和产出值的计算方法,并进行了实证分析.

The Study of Regional Industrial Capital Drift Based on the Stochastic Model

Capital is not only the "blood" of industrial system but also an important internal variable which realize the industry to achieve sustainable development.In the interest driven, industrial capital randomly drifts.This paper uses the Markov method to study the drift of the regional industrial capital and gives the mean and variance of turnover time and retention time of industrial capital,respectively,we deduced the industrial capital output ratio and obtained the formula of output value,in the end of paper,we give a empirical analysis of this model.