政府调控下的能源供需系统动力学分析

依据一个经济时期内能源需求、能源供应和政府调控之间相互依存、相互制约的演化关系为背景建立了一个新的能源供需模型.模型中引入市场自身调节的闽值,政府调控的阈值,政府调控对能源需求和能源供应的影响系数等参数,通过参数的调整,分析了政府调控在能源供需中的作用.通过平衡点稳定性、系统的耗散性、Lyapunov指数谱等的分析,研究了系统的基本动力学行为,利用数值模拟的方法给出了系统的动力演化行为;给出了模型中参数估计的方式,对模型所反映的现实意义进行了解释,给出了数值模拟结果,验证了理论分析的正确性.

Energy Demand-Supply Model with Government Regulation and Its Dynamical Analysis

This paper reports a new three-dimensional energy demand-supply chaotic system. The system is obtained in accordance with the complicated relationship between energy demands,energy supply and government regulation.The inflexion of market self-regulation, The inflexion of government regulation,the coefficient of government regulation to energy demand and energy supply were introduced in the model.The role of government regulation in the energy supply and demand was analyzed through the adjustment of the parameters. The dynamics behavior of the system will be analyzed by means of Lyapunov exponents and equilibrium points.Numerical simulations are presented to show these results.The method of the parameters estimation was given.Finally,the practical significance of the model to reflect was explained.