| 基于改进的BP神经网络中国CPI运行预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘向荣,孙红英. 基于改进的BP神经网络中国CPI运行预测研究[J]. 数学的实践与认识, 2013, 43(6): 1-8 |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘向荣 孙红英 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 华南理工大学工商管理学院,广东广州,510640
2. 仲恺农业工程学院计算科学学院,广东广州,510225 |
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| 摘 要： | 加强和改善宏观调控,保持价格平稳运行,促进经济持续健康发展是经济工作的重中之重.鉴于BP神经网络模型具有很好地模拟非线性系统的优点,对BP神经网络模型进行了新的改进,在对权值和阈值进行修改时加入了动量项α,并根据以往两次金融危机前后中国CPI运行具有较高相关性的特点,以1997年和2008年两次金融危机集中爆发前后数年数据为基础,运用该模型对中国CPI指数运行进行了拟合,并以2011年为例对中国CPI指数进行了预测,结果与实际运行数据基本一致,预测效果很好.此方法可为改进价格预测,加强价格调控提供重要借鉴意义.
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| 关 键 词： | BP神经网络 CPI运行 定量分析 中国 |
The Quantitative Analysis of CPI in China Based on the Improved BP Neural Networks |
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| LIU Xiang-rong , SUN Hong-ying. The Quantitative Analysis of CPI in China Based on the Improved BP Neural Networks[J]. Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 2013, 43(6): 1-8 |
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| Authors: | LIU Xiang-rong SUN Hong-ying |
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| Affiliation: | 1.School of Business Administration,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510640,China) (2.School of Computational Science,Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Technology,Guangzhou 510225, China) |
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| Abstract: | It is the top priority of economic work to improve macro-controlling and keep prices stable.In view of the BP neural network model has the advantage of a good simulation of nonlinear systems.The paper has Improved the BP Neural Networks,and Momentum term(α) is added to make changes in the weight and threshold.China's CPI has a higher correlation characteristics during twice before and after the financial crisis,The model run fitting Chinese CPI based on data from before and behind of 1997 and 2008,and analysis Quantitatively the CPI in China. |
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| Keywords: | improved BP neural networks CPI the quantitative analysis China |
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