| Abstract: | Capital allocation models generally assume that the risk portfolio is constructed at a single point in time, when the underwriter has full information about available underwriting opportunities. However, in practice, opportunities are not all known at the beginning but instead arrive over time. Moreover, a commitment to an opportunity is not easy to change as time passes. Thus, to optimize a portfolio, the underwriter must make decisions on opportunities as they arrive while making use of assumptions about what will arrive in the future. This paper studies capital allocation rules in this setting, finding important differences from the static setting. The pricing of an opportunity is based on an expected future marginal cost of risk associated with that opportunity—one that will be fully understood only after the risk portfolio is finalized. The risk charge for today’s opportunity is thus a probability-weighted average of the product of the marginal value of capital in future states of the world and the amount of capital consumed by the opportunity in those future states. Our numerical examples illustrate how the marginal cost of risk for an opportunity is shaped by when it arrives in time, as well as what has arrived before it. |
