Multivariate Prognostic Model for Predicting the Outcome of Critically Ill Patients Using the Aromatic Metabolites Detected by Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry

A number of aromatic metabolites of tyrosine and phenylalanine have been investigated as new perspective markers of infectious complications in the critically ill patients of intensive care units (ICUs). The goal of our research was to build a multivariate model for predicting the outcome of critically ill patients regardless of the main pathology on the day of admission to the ICU. Eight aromatic metabolites were detected in serum using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The samples were obtained from the critically ill patients (n = 79), including survivors (n = 44) and non-survivors (n = 35), and healthy volunteers (n = 52). The concentrations of aromatic metabolites were statistically different in the critically ill patients and healthy volunteers. A univariate model for predicting the outcome of the critically ill patients was based on 3-(4-hydroxyphenyl)lactic acid (p-HPhLA). Two multivariate classification models were built based on aromatic metabolites using SIMCA method. The predictive models were compared with the clinical APACHE II scale using ROC analysis. For all of the predictive models the areas under the ROC curve were close to one. The aromatic metabolites (one or a number of them) can be used in clinical practice for the prognosis of the outcome of critically ill patients on the day of admission to the ICU.