140La/140Ba ratio dating of a nuclear release

In May 2010, air sampling stations in South Korea, Japan and the Russian Federation detected different unstable xenon isotopes and their progenies attached to aerosol particles. The origin of these fission products remains unclear. Previous studies have suggested that a possible reason for these observations is a nuclear test performed in North Korea in May 2010. In the present paper, preliminary spectra recorded at 2 h intervals at the particulate sampling station in Okinawa, Japan are analysed with rigorous mathematical methods. Based on the activity ratios of the ¹⁴⁰Xe progenies ¹⁴⁰Ba and ¹⁴⁰La in a sudden release scenario, the analysis provides an estimate of 12 May 16:00 (UTC) for the release date of the nuclear debris in the form of ¹⁴⁰Xe. The 95 % uncertainty limits for the release date are 11 May 9:00–13 May 13:00 (UTC). The result is very sensitive to the coincidence correction factor of the measurement setup and a larger uncertainty interval cannot be excluded. A continuous release scenario could also explain the data, possibly referring to a leak in a running nuclear reactor either on shore or in a vessel. No studies were made on the attribution of the observations to a release site. However, our conclusion is that fresh nuclear debris has been detected in East Asia, and further studies are required in an international forum to reanalyse the data. Of particular importance for the time-zero analysis is the a posteriori calibration of the Okinawa station with a ¹⁴⁰Ba sample to resolve the uncertainty related to the coincidence correction and other factors.