Statistical theory for protein ensembles with designed energy landscapes

Combinatorial protein libraries provide a promising route to investigate the determinants and features of protein folding and to identify novel folding amino acid sequences. A library of sequences based on a pool of different monomer types are screened for folding molecules, consistent with a particular foldability criterion. The number of sequences grows exponentially with the length of the polymer, making both experimental and computational tabulations of sequences infeasible. Herein a statistical theory is extended to specify the properties of sequences having particular values of global energetic quantities that specify their energy landscape. The theory yields the site-specific monomer probabilities. A foldability criterion is derived that characterizes the properties of sequences by quantifying the energetic separation of the target state from low-energy states in the unfolded ensemble and the fluctuations of the energies in the unfolded state ensemble. For a simple lattice model of proteins, excellent agreement is observed between the theory and the results of exact enumeration. The theory may be used to provide a quantitative framework for the design and interpretation of combinatorial experiments.