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An explicit model of default time with given survival probability
Authors:Monique Jeanblanc  Shiqi Song
Affiliation:
  • a Laboratoire Analyse et Probabilités, EA2172, Université d’Évry Val d’Essonne, 91025 Évry Cedex, France
  • b Institut Europlace de Finance, France
  • Abstract:For a given filtered probability space (Ω,F,P), an F-adapted continuous increasing process Λ and a positive P-F local martingale N such that Λ0=0 and NteΛt≤1, we construct a probability measure QZ and a random time τ such that Q|F=P|F and Q[τ>t|Ft]=Zt. The probability QZ is linked with the well-known Cox model by an explicit density function. Various properties exist, which characterize QZ from others. Let G=(Gt)t≥0 with Gt=Ftσ({τs}:st). We establish the (H)-property between the filtrations F and G, and we provide the enlargement of filtration formula.
    Keywords:Credit risk   Cox model   Progressive enlargement of filtrations   Semimartingale decomposition formula
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