| 南疆铁路沿线区域人口发展和城镇化水平预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 李晓东 舒强 等. 南疆铁路沿线区域人口发展和城镇化水平预测[J]. 新疆大学学报(理工版), 2001, 18(1): 114-119 |
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| 作者姓名： | 李晓东 舒强 等 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆大学资源环境信息科学系，新疆乌鲁木剂830046 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据南疆铁路沿线四地州人口发展过程和人口现状与城镇化水平现状，采用联合国人口基金提供的People人口预测软件和大型统计软件SPSS，以及联合国人品司推荐持用于预测世界各国城市人口的方法，简称URGD法，以1998年的统计数据为基础对区域的人口发展和城镇化水平进行了预测到2015年南疆铁路沿线地州人口将达到887万人，城镇化水平将达到37％，随后又对预测的意义进行了探讨，提出了人口发展规划和城镇化水平目标规划，并为规划的实现提出了几点主要的保障措施。
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| 关 键 词： | 南疆铁路沿线 人口发展 城镇化 预测 经济发展 预测模型 城市化水平 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-2839(2001)01-0114-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2000-05-29 |
The Forecast of thePopulation Development and the Urbanization Level in the Region Along the Railway of SouthXinjiang |
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| LI Xiao dong,SHU Qiang,ZHONG Wei,ZHOU Zhe. The Forecast of thePopulation Development and the Urbanization Level in the Region Along the Railway of SouthXinjiang[J]. Journal of Xinjiang University(Science & Engineering), 2001, 18(1): 114-119 |
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| Authors: | LI Xiao dong SHU Qiang ZHONG Wei ZHOU Zhe |
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| Abstract: | According to development course and current situation of population and status quo of urbanization level in the region along railway of southern Xinjiang, the author applies the PEOPLE software and the large statistics software SPSS and the method of URGD to forecast the development of population and the level of urbanization in the region on the base of statistical data from 1998.The population will reach 8.87 million, and the level of urbanization will reach 37% in 2015.Then the author probes into the significance of such forecast,puts forward the programs of the population development and the urbanization level in the region, and tries to advance some safeguard measurement aim at realization of such program. |
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| Keywords: | The region along the railway of southern Xinjiang population development urbanization forecast |
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