城市道路人车冲突和碰撞概率微观模型研究

利用临界间隙理论,定义了城市道路行人过街的安全感知特征;在此基础上,利用概率论方法,研究行人与机动车之间的交通冲突和碰撞微观机理,分别推导出人车冲突和碰撞概率微观模型.采用贝叶斯全概率公式和蒙特卡洛仿真方法求出具体的概率值,来分析行人安全感知、驾驶人反应时间、车流量及车速等对行人安全造成的影响.最后,基于人车冲突概率的90%置信水平,建立了行人过街的危险度评价指标,从而为交通管制实施提供最佳依据.

Study on Probabilistic Microscopic Models for Pedestrian vehicle Traffic Conflict and Collision on Urban Road

The safety perception characteristics of pedestrian crossing the urban road was defined according to the critical theory. Based on a study of the microscopic mechanism of pedestrian-vehicle traffic conflict and collision, the probabilistic microscopic models for pedestrian-vehicle traffic conflict and collision were established. Then, the probability value was calculated by the formula of Bayesian statistics and Monte Carlo simulation for an analysis of the influence of safety perception, reaction time, traffic volumes and vehicle speed on pedestrians. Finally, the indicator of risk evaluation was established on the basis of 90% confidence level of probability. The results can provide the best foundation for the implementation of traffic regulation.