基于系统冲击的灰色预测模型及其应用研究

针对系统受到系统外部冲击问题,结合泛函理论和灰色系统理论,建立了含有系统冲击泛函分析因子的灰色泛函预测模型。并运用贝叶斯网络推理技术,建立了系统冲击与系统控制的灰色贝叶斯网络推理预测模型。所建模型可以分析基于系统冲击演化的泛函分析因子的动态推演问题。依据泛函分析因子的变动,可以预测与修正系统发展趋势。案例分析了2013年房地产经济受到新政策的冲击问题。由于房地产经济受到新政策冲击,使经济发展态势发生转变。根据房地产经济的当前时段信息,利用灰色贝叶斯网络推理预测模型对历史趋势进行修正,预测结果与实际数值仅有3.81%的偏离,预测结果较其它现有模型的预测结果精确。灰色贝叶斯网络推理模型强调对近期数据的开发利用,适用于预测系统近期受到外部冲击的发展趋势问题。

Forecasting Model Based on Impulse Response Grey and Its Application

In view of the problem of external shock response of the system, we establish a grey prediction model including functional analysis factors in combination with functional theory and grey system theory. And a grey forecasting model of Bayesian network inference is also established for shock response and system control by applying Bayesian networks inference technique. These modelcan be used to analyze the the dynamic inference problem of the functional analysis factors of shock response evolution. On the basis of the changes of functional analysis factors, we can predict and revise the system development trend. In 2013,the new policy affected the real estate economy, so the development trend of the real estate economy is has changed. Based on the present session information of real estate economy, the historical trend has been revised using the grey forecasting model of Bayesian network inference. The deviation between the predicted results and the actual results is only 3.81 percent, which is more accurate than the prediction results of other models. The established models are applied to predicting the development of the real estate economy by recent external impulse response emphasis on the development and utilization of recent data.