全球变暖对中国极端暖月事件的潜在影响

利用极值理论（extreme value theory, EVT）中的广义帕雷托分布（generalized Pareto distribution, GPD），结合空间参数估计方案研究了中国1960—2007年740站的月平均温度距平中极端暖月事件（extreme warm month events，EWME）的空间分布特征，给出了历史上典型EWME的重现时间估计，重点分析了区域气候变暖作为强迫因子对EWME分布的潜在影响.分析表明：1）中国EWME的性质的空间分布差异较大，青藏高原西部、中国西南地区、 关键词： 极端气候事件 帕雷托分布 全球变暖

Potential impacts of global warming on extreme warm month events in China

In this study the average monthly data anomalies of 1960-2007 for 740 stations in China were analyzed. This research uses EVT （extreme value theory） to explore the spatial EWME （extreme warm month events） properties in China. The effects of potentially explanatory factors - climate warming on the distribution of EWME are investigated using GPD model with parameters estimated via a spatial scheme. The results showed that: 1） The properties of EWME have strong spatial dependence. The EWME have smaller variability over Tibetan plateau and North China plain and the coastal area of South China, while the EWME have larger variability over North China. There are more EWME with higher quantile over Middle-lower Yangtze area than that over the other regions. 2） The stations have the return period of the 2002 EWME with 3-5 centigrade longer than 10 years, and some grids have the return period longer than 50 years for EWME with 5-7 centigrade. 3） It has a potential relationship between regional climate warming and the EWME over some of special region. The variability and high quantile of the EWME are affected obviously by climate warming over Tibetan plateau plain and North China plain and northeast China plain, namely over the regions between monsoons on and non-monsoons.