Forecasting transport requirements for district primary health care in Ghana: A simulation study

In rural planning in developing countries, random factors such as vehicle breakdown, weather conditions and staff availability are particularly important. These can be dealt with specially well by simulation. Transportation is also particularly important in rural areas. This paper presents a simulation study of transport requirements for a rural primary health care scheme in Ghana where the random factors are unavailability of vehicles due to repairs and unavailability of health specialists and drivers for work due to holidays, etc. The analysis gives a quick method of calculating the expected number of jobs that can be done for given numbers of vehicles, levels of availability etc. The simulation gives the corresponding probability distribution. The analysis also indicates which random factor has most effect on limiting the number of jobs that can be done. Policy conclusions are drawn regarding the number of vehicles per district and the payment of incentives to staff for good attendance.