云南连年旱灾的社会应对行为构成及变化研究

本文以云南省2009—2013年连年旱灾为例,利用气象数据和报刊资料分别构建了逐月的气象干旱演变序列和逐日的社会应对行为次数序列,通过序列的对比分析得出:4年间气象干旱持续发生,旱情不断叠加,缓解困难,其中以2009—2010年的旱情最为严重;旱灾形成原因复杂多样,主要由大气环流异常配置引起.社会应对行为的多少与气象干旱的严重程度有较大相关性,随着时间推进,社会对干旱的敏感性逐渐增加、从初期的滞后(2~3个月)应对变为及时应对;政府在抗旱救灾中起主导作用,其应对行为占所有行为的79%,第一年以短效应急行为(统筹部署)为主,随着干旱持续,长效减灾行为(水利建设)增加;社会组织主要的应对行为主要是捐赠;灾民个体应对相较而言能力有限,其行为不能通过报刊信息得以全面反映.政府应在后续旱灾防范工作中加强生态建设和提高工农业用水效率.

Components of social response behavior and their changes due to successive droughts in Yunnan Province

The successive droughts from 2009 to 2013 in Yunnan were studied using meteorological data and medium information to construct monthly evolution sequence of successive meteorological droughts and daily sequence of social response behavior.Comparative analysis of these two sequences revealed that meteorological droughts occured and exacerbated continually in the 4 years concerned and were hard to relieve,drought in 2009-2010 was particularly severe;this drought occurred due to complex factors,but mainly due to abnormal distribution of atmospheric circulation.The quantity of social response behavior was well-correlated with severity of meteorological drought,society became more sensitive to drought as time went by while responses lagged 2～3 months at the beginning but became more timely later on;The government played a leading role in drought disaster relief,accounting for 79％ of all response behavior,with largely short-acting emergency responses (overall planning) initially then long-acting disaster reduction behavior (water conservancy construction) became more prominent as drought continued;Response of social organizations was mainly composed of donations;their ability to cope with drought disaster victims was limited,and their behavior were not comprehensively reflected in newspaper information.The government should strengthen biological construction and increase efficiency of industrial and agricultural use of water in the follow-up drought prevention work.