用灰色定量类比预测龙滩水电工程库周区经济

采用定量类比法与灰色系统模型相结合的方法，选定已积累有较长的实际运行资料的丹江口工程作为类比工程对龙滩水电工程库周区进行经济影响的预测。在类比的基础上建立各种产业经济的灰色预测模型。并将建库与未建库对库周区经济发展的影响作了对比。为中央对兴建该项巨型水电工程作最后决策提供了一定的科学依据。

Prediction of the Economic Development for the Circumjacent Reservoir Region of the Longtan Hydropower Project Using Grey Quantitative Analog

In order to overcome some technical difficulties,we adopt ingenously the grey models combined with the quantitative analog method,and select the Dan Jiangkou Project which has accumulated practical operation data for a long time as the analog project to predict the economic influence for the circumjacent reservoir region of the Longtan hydropower project.On the basis of analog we have built various industrial economic grey models,and compare them with the corresponding predictions for the unconstructed reservoir case.The predictions of the former are greatly larger than the later ones.and hence provides a certain scientific basis for the central leaders to make a decision for constructing the huge hydropower project ultimateiy.