| 单个生产商和多个零售商缺货概率的计算法 |
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| 引用本文： | 仇莉,张君卿.单个生产商和多个零售商缺货概率的计算法[J].运筹与管理,2011,20(3). |
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| 作者姓名： | 仇莉 张君卿 |
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| 作者单位： | 燕山大学经济管理学院,河北秦皇岛,066004 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，河北省自然科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 由于需求的不确定性,容易造成缺货,如何计算缺货概率却是一个棘手的问题.本文把由单个制造商和多个零售商构成的供应链模型成Markov过程,利用排队理论分析供应链上各状态间的转移关系,以单个制造商和三个零售商为例澄清状态转移矩阵的内部结构,并对一般模型提出计算缺货和满货概率的计算公式.在此基础上分析了各状态概率对库存总成本的影响,为系统的优化决策提供分析的依据.数值实验表明所提出的方法是行之有效的.
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| 关 键 词： | 供应链管理 缺货概率 排队论 库存成本 |
Solution of Short Supply Probability for One Manufacturer and Several Retailers |
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| QIU Li,ZHANG Jun-qing.Solution of Short Supply Probability for One Manufacturer and Several Retailers[J].Operations Research and Management Science,2011,20(3). |
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| Authors: | QIU Li ZHANG Jun-qing |
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| Institution: | QIU Li,ZHANG Jun-qing(School of Economics and Management,Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao 066004,China) |
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| Abstract: | The uncertainty of the demand,results in being out of stock.How to calculate the probability of being out of stock is a difficult issue.This paper models the supply chain.into Markov process;which is composed of a manufacturer and several retailers.It analyzes the transition relationship of all the states of the supply chain by using the queuing theory,and takes one manufacture and three retailers as an example to clarify the internal structure of the matrix which describes the transitions among the states.... |
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| Keywords: | supply chain management probability of being out of stock queuing theory inventory costs |
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