Rational inference: deductive,inductive and probabilistic thinking

The paper reviews three modes of rational inference: deductive, inductive andprobabilistic. Many examples of each can be found in scientific endeavour,professional practice and public discourse. However, while the strengths andweaknesses of deductive and inductive inference are well established, theimplications of the emerging probabilistic orientation are still being workedthrough. The paper discusses some of the recent findings in psychology andphilosophy, and speculates about the implications for scientific andprofessional practice in general and OR in particular. It is suggested that theprobabilistic orientation and Bayesian approach can provide an epistemologicallens through which to view the claims of different approaches to inference. Somesuggestions for further research are made.