基于主成分分析的需水量预测模型研究

用水是整个水资源系统中的一个重要环节,需水预测是制定水资源规划、管理以及国民经济计划的基础和依据.提出了基于主成分分析法分析的需水量预测模型,试图能探讨需水定额与经济社会各影响关系响应,以郑州市为例对2010年、2020年和2030年的工业、农业和生活的需水量进行了预测,并与郑州市水资源规划的预测结果进行了比较,分析及比较结果表明:该模型预测结果比规划结果偏低,2010年、2020年和2030年平水年分别需水162295×104m3、179966×104m3和194696×104m3,需水结构的变化基本反映了郑州市产业结构调整和社会经济良性发展的趋势.

Study on Forecasting Model of Water Demand Based on the Principal Component Analysis

Water use is an important sector for the whole water resources system,and water demand is the basis and reference for the water resources plan,management,and national economic development.The main purpose of the paper is to ration respond between the water demand quota and society economic.Water demand model based on the principal component analysis are presented.The zhengzhou city is taken as the example.The results are compared with the water resources plan forecasting of the Zhengzhou city.The results show that the forecast is lower than the plan.The water demand in 2010,2020,and 2030 are 162295×104m3、179966×104m3和194696×104m3,respectively.The variety of the water demand structure of the model reflect the trend of the industry adjust and the society economic development.