| 基于改进SEIR算法的疫情传播趋势检测方法 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 燕杨,郭皓钰,魏宇航,尤紫如,肖志强,黄文博.基于改进SEIR算法的疫情传播趋势检测方法[J].吉林大学学报(理学版),2021,59(6):1511-1516. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 燕杨 郭皓钰 魏宇航 尤紫如 肖志强 黄文博 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 长春师范大学 计算机科学与技术学院, 长春 130032；2. 吉林大学 白求恩第一临床医学院, 长春 130021； 3. 吉林大学 地球科学学院, 长春 130021 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 通过对传统SEIR(susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed)算法进行优化重建, 提出一种改进的SEIR算法. 该算法通过为感染率β添加衰减函数, 对数据拟合得到随时间增长而改变的β. 仿真实验结果表明, 该算法在测试集上的平均MSE（mean square error）只有0.11, 相比于目前已有的其他算法, 误差值显著降低.
|
| 关 键 词： | SEIR算法 衰减函数 ARIM算法 传播趋势检测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-04-23 |
Epidemic Propagation Trend Detection Based on Improved SEIR Algorithm |
| |
| YAN Yang,GUO Haoyu,WEI Yuhang,YOU Ziru,XIAO Zhiqiang,HUANG Wenbo.Epidemic Propagation Trend Detection Based on Improved SEIR Algorithm[J].Journal of Jilin University: Sci Ed,2021,59(6):1511-1516. |
| |
| Authors: | YAN Yang GUO Haoyu WEI Yuhang YOU Ziru XIAO Zhiqiang HUANG Wenbo |
| |
| Institution: | 1. School of Computer Science and Technology, Changchun Normal University, Changchun 130032, China；2. The First Bethune Clinical Medical College of Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China; 3. College of Earth Sciences, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China
|
| |
| Abstract: | By optimizing and reconstructing the traditional SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed) algorithm, we proposed an improved SEIR algorithm. The algorithm added attenuation function to the infection rate β, and the data were fitted to get the infection rate β that changed with time. Simulation results show that the average MSE (mean square error) of the algorithm on the test set is only 0.11, which significantly reduced the error value compared with other existing algorithm. |
| |
| Keywords: | susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) algorithm attenuation function ARIM algorithm propagation trend detection |
| 本文献已被 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《吉林大学学报(理学版)》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《吉林大学学报(理学版)》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
