Analogue correction method of errors and its application to numerical weather prediction

In this paper, an analogue correction method of errors (ACE) based on acomplicated atmospheric model is further developed and applied to numericalweather prediction (NWP). The analysis shows that the ACE can effectivelyreduce model errors by combining the statistical analogue method with thedynamical model together in order that the information of plenty ofhistorical data is utilized in the current complicated NWP model. Furthermore,in the ACE, the differences of the similarities between different historicalanalogues and the current initial state are considered as the weights forestimating model errors. The results of daily, decad and monthly predictionexperiments on a complicated T63 atmospheric model show that the performanceof the ACE by correcting model errors based on the estimation of the errorsof 4 historical analogue predictions is not only better than that of thescheme of only introducing the correction of the errors of every singleanalogue prediction, but is also better than that of the T63 model.