| 加权马尔可夫模型在年降水量上的预测应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 袁建辉,姜慧勤,宋天野. 加权马尔可夫模型在年降水量上的预测应用[J]. 数学的实践与认识, 2013, 43(4): 89-95 |
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| 作者姓名： | 袁建辉 姜慧勤 宋天野 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学经济管理学院,南京,210044 |
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| 基金项目： | 气象软科学基金(2012058);教育部人文社科基金(12YJC790246);国家自然科学基金(71271118) |
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| 摘 要： | 降水是气象预测的重要环节,并在人类的生产生活中扮演着越来越重要的角色.以南京市1971-2011年的年降水量为依据,通过运用加权的马尔可夫模型,分别对其2010、2011年的降水量状态进行预测,并运用向量叠加法来预测出这两年的年降水量具体数值.分析结果表明,该模型在降水量预测方面的应用是可行的,能够有效的提高中长期降水量预测的精度.
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| 关 键 词： | 降水 权 马尔可夫链 预测 |
Prediction and Application of Year Precipitation Based on the Weighted Markov Model |
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| YUAN Jian-hui , JIANG Hui-qin , SONG Tian-ye. Prediction and Application of Year Precipitation Based on the Weighted Markov Model[J]. Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 2013, 43(4): 89-95 |
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| Authors: | YUAN Jian-hui JIANG Hui-qin SONG Tian-ye |
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| Affiliation: | (School of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044,China) |
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| Abstract: | Precipitation is an important part of weather forecast,and it is playing an increasingly important role in human production and life.This paper uses weighted Markov model to predict Nanjing precipitation in 2010 and 2011 with the precipitation information of 1971 to 2011,and on the other hand,the vector superposition is used to predict specific values of the annual precipitation.As shown by the results,the model in the application of precipitation is feasible,and it improves the accuracy of the forecast of long-term precipitation. |
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| Keywords: | precipitation weight Markov chain prediction |
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