技术不确定环境下新产品策略的设计应用

技术的动态发展和企业间的竞争对企业新产品策略有很大影响,直接决定新产品的引进周期。本文在产业技术动态变化的随机环境下构建随机动态规划模型,关注产业技术进步、投资成本和产品市场竞争等影响因素,探讨企业进行新产品引进的周期选择,对新产品引进的周期和质量决策进行方法设计和应用举例。利用随机动态规划模型得出新产品引进的最优时间周期,用算例分析技术进步和产品研发成本对企业引进周期策略的影响,采取策略迭代的方法进行求解,发现技术进步较快时企业的新产品引进步伐也较快,研发成本的提高使企业的新产品引入步伐降低。

Design and Application of New Product Intoduction Policy under Uncertain Environment

Technology dynamic progress and product competition affect new product introduction timing decision.In stochastic dynamic program model,we study the optimal new product introduction timing policy under technology uncertainty and competition.We explore the method to make decision of new product policy,analyze the effect of technology progress and development cost on new product introduction policy.The iteration method is used to solve infinite-horizon Markov decision process.We find that the quicker technology progress is,the shorter new product introduction period.Low development cost speeds up new product introduction.