Decision making under partial probability information using pair-wise comparisons

In many decision-making situations, decision makers (DMs) have difficulty in specifying their perceived state probability values or even probability value ranges. However, they may find it easier to tell how much more likely is the occurrence of a given state when compared with other states. An approach is proposed to identify the efficient strategies of a decision-making situation where the DMs involved declare their perceived relative likelihood of the occurrence of the states by pair-wise comparisons. The pair-wise comparisons of all the states are used to construct a judgment matrix, which is transformed into a probability matrix. The columns of the transformed matrix delineate a convex cone of the state probabilities. Next, an efficiency linear program (ELP) is formulated for each available strategy, whose optimal solution determines whether or not that strategy is efficient within the probability region defined by the cone. Only an efficient strategy can be optimum for a given set of state probability values. Inefficient strategies are never used irrespective of state probability values. The application of the approach is demonstrated using examples where DMs offer differing views on the occurrence of the states.