基于物质流分析的宁波市经济-环境系统研究

运用物质流分析方法对2005~2011年宁波市经济系统的物质输入与输出进行分析, 探讨了宁波市经济发展与环境压力的关系, 找出影响环境压力的重要因素. 结果表明, 在2005~2011年间, 宁波市的物质输入输出平均增长速度分别为8.8%和9.1%, 宁波市的经济发展对进口物质的依赖性日趋上升. 结合环境库茨涅茨曲线, 得出宁波市目前还未达到后工业化阶段, 经济发展仍是高消耗、高排放的传统经济增长模式, 对资源和环境产生了很大的压力. 根据IPAT模型, 要缓解这种环境压力, 提高科技水平和经济是关键. 因此, 宁波市必须切实转变经济增长方式, 发展循环经济.

Analysis on Economy-environment System of Ningbo Based on Material Flow

In this paper, the author adopts the material flow analysis (MFA) to study the material inputs and outputs of economic system of Ningbo city based on the data collected from 2005 to 2011. The relationship between economic growth and environmental pressure is explored, and the important factors which influence the environmental pressure are taken into consideration in the analysis. The results show that, from 2005 to 2011, material inputs and outputs of Ningbo have been growing at an average annual rate of 8.8% and 9.1% respectively, and that economic development in Ningbo tends to increasingly depend on importation. With reference to the EKC, the author comes to a conclusion that, at present, Ningbo has not reached the stage of post-industrialization yet, and the economy is still growing with the traditional fashion featuring high consumption and high emission, which has imposed the enormous pressure on resources conservation and environment protection. According to the IPAT model, improving science and technology as well as economy is the key to easing the pressure on environment. Therefore, the government of Ningbo should convert the current economic development pattern into the circulating and sustainable economy.