基于多期有限理性的可再生资源寡头博弈模型与分析

本文讨论多期有限理性条件下可再生资源开发的寡头博弈模型。在每个经济时期以实现多个相邻时期的总贴现利润最大化为目的而得到双寡头决策者资源开发的最优策略组合,并以各期最优策略组合构建资源开发决策的动力系统。通过对系统的动力学分析,讨论了系统中各参数对系统的稳定性与稳定状态的作用与影响,并给出了相应的经济解释。分析了反馈控制系统的稳定性。最后通过对系统的数值模拟,分析了各参数的取值变化与系统稳定速度之间的关系。本文通过系统的稳定性分析获得的主要结论是,资源市场竞争的稳定与可持续发展与决策者注重后期经济利益的决策理性密切相关。

Duopoly Game With Multi-period Bounded Rationality in Renewable Resource Extraction

Based on multi-period bounded rationality, a dynamical system for the duopoly game of renewable resource extraction is proposed in the work. In the dynamics modeled each producer's optimal extraction strategy is chosen to maximize his discounted profits in several adjacent periods. Dynamical analysis is done for the influence of the model parameters on the equilibrium state and its stability, and economic explanations for the results are given. A controlled system with feedback control is given and its stability is discussed. Numerical simulation is made to show the influence of the parameters on the convergence speed of the dynamics. The main conclusion shown from the dynamical analysis of the system is that the stability and sustainability of resource development is correlated and dependent with decision-makers' rationality of focusing on the long-term profits.