黑龙江省天保工程区绩效评价及其障碍因子甄别

【目的】黑龙江省天保工程的主要目标既包括天然林保护与生态环境建设目标,也包括林区社会和谐发展目标,还包括转变林区发展方式、提升林区产业经济发展目标。对天保工程实施20多年来的绩效进行跟踪评价,考察天保工程区是否达到国家预期的效果,分析可能遇到的障碍或阻力。【方法】从森林生态、产业经济、社会稳定3个维度构建黑龙江省天保工程区绩效评价指标体系,将客观赋权的熵权与逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS)相结合构建天保工程区绩效评价模型及障碍因子甄别模型,对1997—2019年黑龙江省天保工程区绩效进行评价及其障碍因子甄别。【结果】①1997—2019年,黑龙江省天保工程区的综合绩效评价指数从0.011 5升至0.799 7,森林生态维度绩效评价指数从0.012 1升至0.711 2,社会稳定维度绩效评价指数从0.010 2升至0.739 7,产业经济维度绩效评价指数从0.013 4升至0.765 5;②1997—2019年天保工程区产业经济维度、森林生态维度、社会稳定维度的障碍指数均值分别为46.18%、27.62%、26.20%。【结论】黑龙江省天保工程二期比天保工程前、天保工程试点和天保工程一期的综合绩效水平及各维度绩效水平都有了明显提升;从动态发展视角来看,产业经济维度是天保工程的主要障碍因子,指标层的前5位障碍因子分别是人工林木材产量、木材产品销售量、第一产业涉林产业总产值、工程区木材产量、林业旅游与休闲服务产值。

Performance evaluation and obstacle factor screening of Natural Forest Protection Project area in Heilongjiang Province

【Objective】The purpose of Natural Forest Protection Project in Helongjiang Province is to find out whether the implementation of the Natural Forest Protection Project (NFPP) in Heilongjiang Province has achieved the effect expected in terms of the state and the obstacles or resistance it may have encountered. This study also aims to track and evaluate the performance of the NFPP area.【Method】From three dimensions of forest ecology, industrial economy and social stability, the performance evaluation index system of the NFPP area in Heilongjiang Province was constructed. The performance evaluation model and the obstacle factor discrimination model were constructed for the NFPP area by combining the entropy weight with the technique for order preference by similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS). This was undertaken to evaluate the 1997-2019 performances and discriminate between the obstacle factors for the NFPP area in Heilongjiang Province.【Result】(1) From 1997 to 2019, the performance evaluation index for the NFPP area in Heilongjiang Province increased from 0.011 5 to 0.799 7; the performance evaluation index for the forest ecological dimension, the social stability dimension, and the industrial economy dimension increased from 0.012 1 to 0.711 2, from 0.010 2 to 0.739 7, and from 0.013 4 to 0.765 5, respectively. (2) The 1997-2019 average value of the obstacle index of the industrial economy dimension, the forest ecological dimension, and the social stability dimension stood at 46.18%, 27.62% and 26.20%, respectively.【Conclusion】The overall performance level and the performance level for each dimension of NFPP phase II significantly improved compared with those of the NFPP pilot and NFPP phase I. From the perspective of dynamic development, the industrial economy dimension was the main obstacle factor for NFPP. The top five obstacle factors in the indicator layer were found to be plantation timber output, sales volume of wood products, total output value for forest-related industries in the primary industry, timber output for the project area, and the output value for forestry tourism and leisure services.