网络结构、采纳者偏好与创新扩散:基于采纳者决策过程的创新扩散系统动力学模型仿真分析

在对采纳者决策过程分析的基础上,将网络结构和采纳者偏好作为核心参数,构建基于采纳者决策过程的创新扩散系统动力学模型。对模型进行仿真发现,在采纳者趋同化偏好条件下,网络平均度、网络重连概率与采纳者偏好强度的变动趋势与创新扩散效率的变动趋势相同,而在采纳者差异化偏好条件下则与创新扩散效率变动趋势相反。网络平均路径长度对创新扩散的影响方向与采纳者偏好特征无关,提高网络平均路径长度会始终降低创新扩散的效率。采纳者的趋同化偏好能够放大创新扩散对网络结构变量与采纳者偏好强度变量的敏感程度,采纳者差异化偏好则会缩小创新扩散对网络结构变量与采纳者偏好强度变量的敏感程度。研究结果对于制定创新推广策略具有一定的指导意义。

Network Structure,Adopters Preference and Innovation Diffusion: A Simulation Analysis of the S-D Model of Innovation Diffusion Based on the Decision Making Process of Adopters

Based on the analysis of the adopters decision-making, using the network structure and adopters preference as the key parameters, this paper establishes the innovation diffusion S-D model based on adopters decision-making. The simulation analysis shows that under the similar preferences of adopters, the trend of changes in network average degrees、network rewiring probability and the intensity of adopters preference are the same as the innovation diffusion efficiency. But the results will be opposite under the differentiation preferences of adopters.Improving the average path length of network will always lower the efficiency of innovation diffusion. The similar preferences of adopters can enlarge the sensitivity of innovation diffusion on network structure and adopters preference,but the differentiation preferences of adopters can reduce the sensitivity of innovation diffusion on network structure and adopters preference.