航班飞行计划中燃油计算的风险传导分析

航空公司运行控制部门制定燃油计划需要依据航空器适航性、航行资料、天气资料、备降机场等来自不同部门的信息,某一工作环节信息出现的偏差可能导致飞机加油量不准确,影响飞行安全。本文依据对航空燃油计算过程的机理分析,构建了输入因素对输出风险影响的定量计算模型,在此基础上,研究了航空燃油计算流程上各个工作环节信息偏差的传导问题,对安全风险进行了定量研究。通过对A航空公司B航线实际燃油数据的案例分析,借助蒙特卡洛模拟,分析了爬升顶点重量的偏差对飞机落地剩油可持续时间的影响程度,验证了本文所提方法的可行性和有效性。

The Research on Risk Conduction of Fuel Calculation in Flight Planning

The fuel planning is made by the Airplane Operation Control Department based on airworthiness information, navigational data, weather data, alternate airport and other factors from different departments. Deviation of any information above may result in failure on accuracy of planning, causing unsafe conditions to flights. A calculation model is constructed to quantify the effect of input on the output, basing on the mechanism analysis of fuel-planning. Meanwhile, a safety risk conduction problem is studied to quantitatively describe the flow of deviation through the fuel-planning process.The relationship between the deviation of the weigt-of-TOC and the landing residual oil is analyzed with Monte Carlo simulation. The feasibility and the validity of our research are verified through the case study.