27～31届奥运会田径奖牌洲际分布与趋势预测

运用GM(1,1)模型、贝叶斯公式等对27至31届奥运会田径项目的奖牌分布进行分析并做出预测,以此来为我国田径未来发展提供一定的理论参考。研究显示:奖牌集中现象依旧明显,洲优势项目垄断局面仍旧突出。美洲和欧洲分别延续了速度性和快速力量性项目上极强的竞技水平,并且在全能项目上,双方也将继续两强相争,欧洲会优于美洲;非洲在耐力性项目上将一直保持统治地位,但其他项目有待提高;亚洲和大洋洲在田径项目上实力相对较低,但近年来也有了很大进步;世界田径运动的整体竞争局势短时间内不会发生太大变化。

Intercontinental Distributions of Track and Field Medals for 27th-31st Olympic Games and Predictions of the Trend

Using GM (1,1) model and Bayesian formula to analyze the medal distributions of track and field events medals for the 27th and 31st Olympic Games and then forecasting the future trend, we aim to provide some theoretical reference for the future development of track and field in China. Our study shows that the medal concentration is still obvious, and the monopoly of continental dominant events is still prominent. The Americas and Europe hold their strong competitive edges in speed and speed-strength events respectively, and in all-round events, these two parties will continue to compete against each other, but Europe will be better than the Americas. Africa will remain dominant in endurance events, and needs to improve in other events. Asia and Oceania are relatively weaker in track and field events, but in recent years they have made great progress. The overall situation of world track and field competition will not change much in the near future.