| 粮食生产风险预测及区域差异分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 聂荣,赵晓巍.粮食生产风险预测及区域差异分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2009,39(6). |
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| 作者姓名： | 聂荣 赵晓巍 |
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| 作者单位： | 辽宁大学工商管理学院,辽宁,110036 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部人文社会科学项目,辽宁省科学技术计划项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过各省粮食单产的波动特征,按照Logistic模型模拟"S"形生长曲线,对全国各省2007~2010年的粮食单产进行预测;基于加权马尔科夫链进行各地域单产风险年景预测,计算各种风险状态重现的概率.结果表明,各区域单产基本呈现逐步上升的趋势,但是上升空间有限.今后如果没有重大技术突破,单产绝对量将逐步趋于临界值是必然趋势.
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| 关 键 词： | 加权马尔柯夫链 logistic模型 转移概率矩阵 |
Analysis on Farming Risk and Regional Difference in China |
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| NIE Rong,ZHAO Xiao-wei.Analysis on Farming Risk and Regional Difference in China[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2009,39(6). |
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| Authors: | NIE Rong ZHAO Xiao-wei |
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| Abstract: | This paper simulates the fluctuation of grain unit yield according to the Logistic model and forecasts the increase of grain unit yield in different provinces in china from 2007 to 2010.At the same time,estimates the risk status in the different regions on the weighted Markov chain.The results show that growth of grain unit yield is limited though it increases gradually.In a word,the unit yield will trend to maximum if there are no technological breakthrough in the future. |
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| Keywords: | weighted markov chain logistic model transition probability matrix |
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