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More memory under evolutionary learning may lead to chaos
Authors:Cees Diks  Cars Hommes  Paolo Zeppini
Institution:1. CeNDEF, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands;2. School of Innovation Sciences, Eindhoven University of Technology, The Netherlands
Abstract:We show that an increase of memory of past strategy performance in a simple agent-based innovation model, with agents switching between costly innovation and cheap imitation, can be quantitatively stabilising while at the same time qualitatively destabilising. As memory in the fitness measure increases, the amplitude of price fluctuations decreases, but at the same time a bifurcation route to chaos may arise. The core mechanism leading to the chaotic behaviour in this model with strategy switching is that the map obtained for the system with memory is a convex combination of an increasing linear function and a decreasing non-linear function.
Keywords:Heterogeneous agent models  Imitation  Innovation  Memory  Stability
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