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Time-varying human mobility patterns with metapopulation epidemic dynamics
Authors:Yong-Wang Gong  Yu-Rong Song  Guo-Ping Jiang
Institution:1. College of Automation, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210003, China;2. School of Information Engineering, Yancheng Institute of Technology, Yancheng 224051, China
Abstract:In this paper, explicitly considering the influences of an epidemic outbreak on human travel, a time-varying human mobility pattern is introduced to model the time variation of global human travel. The impacts of the pattern on epidemic dynamics in heterogeneous metapopulation networks, wherein each node represents a subpopulation with any number of individuals, are investigated by using a mean-field approach. The results show that the pattern does not alter the epidemic threshold, but can slightly lower the final average density of infected individuals as a whole. More importantly, we also find that the pattern produces different impacts on nodes with different degree, and that there exists a critical degree kckc. For nodes with degree smaller than kckc, the pattern produces a positive impact on epidemic mitigation; conversely, for nodes with degree larger than kckc, the pattern produces a negative impact on epidemic mitigation.
Keywords:Human mobility pattern  Epidemic dynamics  Reaction&ndash  diffusion process  Complex network
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