A mathematical model of an anthrax epizoötic in the Kruger National Park

An outbreak of anthrax in a single homogeneous geographical region is modelled. The spread of the disease to neigbouring regions is also simulated and the model is compared with data from the 1970 epizoötic in the Kruger National Park.Two possible driving mechanisms for the epizoötic are proposed and examined, viz. environmental contamination or direct contact between vulnerable animals and fresh carcases. In the latter case, it is shown that the model exhibits a threshold effect, in that an epizoötic will only arise if the vulnerable population exceeds a threshold value which is determined in terms of one of the parameters of the model.