湘江水质随机模拟与风险分析

基于Monte Carlo模拟,完成了湘江随机水质模拟和排放口最优规划风险分析,并考察了风险水平与最少污水处理费用之间的变化关系.结果表明:由传统的确定性模拟得到的水质预测结果不可靠,相应规划的实施导致湘江部分河段BOD超标的概率高达46.77%;一般情况下,污水处理费用将随着风险水平的减小而增加,但是变化曲线不是平滑的,而是在小范围内有所波动,只有基于大量的模拟计算,决策人员才能根据不同的风险水平要求选取最优规划方案.

Stochastic Simulation and Risk Analysis of the Xiang-jiang River Water Quality

Stochastic simulation of the Xiang-jiang River water quality was performed based on the Monte Carlo simulation,and the risks of the traditional deterministic programming results were analyzed.The variable relationship between the risk levels and the corresponding optimal operating expenses was achieved.The results indicated that the predicting results of the traditional deterministic programming were not reliable and the implementation of corresponding plans could make the BOD concentrations in the Xiang-jiang River higher than the corresponding national standards with the probability as high as 46.77%.The optimal operating expenses generally rose with the decrease of the risk levels, but the variety was fluctuant in a certain range rather than smooth,so that optimal plans couldn't be chosen without a large number of stochastic simulations.