Benford法则:中国宏观经济统计数据质量评价的一种新范式

中国宏观经济统计数据的真实性和数据质量一直以来饱受质疑,特别是2008年美国金融危机以来,更受到世界各国和许多国内研究者的批评.引进、鉴证并扩展了Benford法则的分布拟合和宏观统计数据的数据随机性质量评价能力,对我国统计系统公布的宏观统计数据进行了客观、真实和有效的评价.研究表明,在0.05的置信水平下,我国的国民经济核算、政府财政统计、金融业、国际收支平衡这四个宏观经济部门的主要经济指标不存在人为操纵和修正,统计数据质量有了显著提升.

Benford'S Law:a new Paradigm of China'S Macroeconomic Statistical Data Quality Evaluation

Data quality is the lifeline of the statistical work,however,the authenticity of China's macroeconomic statistics and the data quality has been questioned from many aspects.especially since the US financial crisis in 2008,which receive more criticism from the researchers from the world and the inland.This thesis introduces,verifies and broadens distribution fitting and the competence of evaluating the randomness quality of macroeconomic statistical data.What is more,it evaluates the macroeconomic statistical data of China's statistics system objectively,authentically and effectively.The research has improves that,in 95% confidence level,the four macroeconomic economic departments' main economic indicators do not exist to human manipulations and corrections including China's National Economy Accounting,Government Financial Statistics,Financial Industries and Financial Balance of International Payments.Further more,the data quality of statistics department has been improved continuously and significantly.