影响系统主因素综合筛选技术研究

系统影响因素过多不仅会增加系统建模难度,而且会增加系统模型的不确定性和数据收集工作量,因此提出一种影响系统的主因素综合筛选技术.技术将综合灰色关联度、普通相关技术、逐步回归方法、DEMATEL法以及系统动力学等方法的优点和缺点,通过彼此互补和相互融合技术,使得该技术能够有效地筛选出影响系统的主因素.通过在筛选影响船舶柴油机寿命周期费用主因素的应用,和其他方法的比较和分析,验证了本技术的可行性、有效性和先进性.

Research on Integrated Filtration Methods of Main factors for the System

Too much factors not only increase the difficulty in modeling system,but also increase the uncertainty and the work load of data collection,so an integrated filtration method is put forward to get the main ones of the system from the numerous factors.The merits and demerits of grey correlation,common correlation,step regression,DEMATEL methods,and system dynamics are compared.By integrating the merits of every method and remedying the demerits of every method each other,the integrated filtration method can be effectively used to get the main factors.By applying the method in confirming the main factors of life cycle cost of some ship diesel engines and comparison to other methods,the feasibility,validity and advantage of the new method are demonstrated.