中国碳排放与能源消费关系实证研究——基于VEC模型

中国碳减排问题成为世界关注的焦点问题.研究碳排放与能源消费关系有助于实现2020年碳减排目标.选取1953-2008年中国碳排放和能源消费数据,运用协整理论、向量误差修正模型(VEC)和Granger因果关系分析,对中国碳排放量与能源消费之间的相互关系进行实证研究.研究结果表明:碳排放与能源消费之间存在协整关系,能源消费增加1%,碳排放将增加0.9646%,即碳排放对能源消费的长期弹性为0.9646.从短期误差修正模型来看,碳排放与能源消费之间具有动态调整机制.非均衡误差项的存在,能够保证两者之间长期均衡关系的存在.Granger因果关系研究表明:碳排放与能源消费之间互为双向因果关系.通过脉冲函数和方差分解分析了模型的动态特征.根据研究结果,提出降低能源消费和减少碳排放对策.

On the Dynamic Relationship Between Carbon Emissions and Energy Consumption in China Based on VEC Model

Carbon reduction in China has become the focus of world attention.Study the relationship between carbon emissions and energy consumption can help achieve the carbon reduction targets in 2020.In accordance with the time series data ranging from 1953 to 2008 that covers China's carbon emissions and energy consumption,an empirical research is made to explore their relations through co-integration theory,VEC model,and Granger's causeand-effect analysis.The result shows that there exist a co-integration relationship between these two factors in question,energy consumption increased by 1%,carbon emissions will increase by 0.9646%,that is to say the long-term flexibility from carbon emissions to energy consumption to is 0.9646.Besides,a dynamic adjustment system is found between them from the short-term VEC model,and an uneven error term is in good position to ensure their longterm balanced relation.Granger approach also testifies cause-and-effect fact between carbon emissions and energy consumption.Finally,impulse function and variance decomposition are applied to explain the dynamic characteristics of the model,which help generate the conclusion together with useful measures as to reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions.