食品卫生安全保障体系数学模型及改进问题研究

论文研究了食品卫生安全保障体系的数学模型,阐述了各种模型的建立方法.在建模过程中,探讨解决了一些改进模型的理论问题.主要工作包括:1、通过改进CAC食品分类标准,给出了一种有效的适用于抽样调查的食物分类方法,在此基础上建立了膳食模型;2、给出了污染物分布模型及建模方法,提出了一种由少量样本数据迭代地外推随机变量整体概率密度函数的算法,讨论了由不同区域的监测数据估计全国总体分布的问题,并给出了一种解决方案;3、建立了风险评估模型,探讨了输入数据不配套时,抽样调查数据的衔接问题.提出了一种新的污染物摄入量的99.999%的右分位点的估计方法.

Research on Modeling and Improving Food Security System

The mathematical model of safety security system is discussed in this paper,and various methods for modeling are presented.Several theoretical issues of improving model are investigated.Firstly,an effective method suited for sampling of food classification is proposed,and a food model is established based on the CAC food classification standards.Secondly,the pollution distribution model and the algorithm estimating the overall probability density function from a small number of sample data is presented,and the problem of estimating the overall distribution from different regions is solved.Thirdly,A model for risk evaluation is established,and the convergence of the nonmatched survey input data is discussed.A new method to estimate the 99.999% right quantile for the intake of pollutants is proposed.