四川省工业化进程中经济增长与环境变迁关系的实证研究

基于四川省1985-2005年的时间序列数据和21个地市州1999-2005年的面板数据,研究了四川经济增长和环境间的关系.文章的主要结论是:就本文所考察的时期,总体上四川省环境污染和经济增长间的关系不存在库兹涅茨倒U型关系.面板数据分析发现,对于废气排放量这一环境指标,环境库兹涅茨曲线假说成立,即经济增长起初会造成环境质量恶化,但到达一个转折点后,经济增长将会改善环境污染状况.并且证实目前四川尚未达到转折点.但是对于工业废水排放量指标,环境库兹涅茨曲线假说不成立.文章认为,尽管研究表明经济增长最终会改善环境质量,但没有理由相信这一过程会自动发生,收入增长与环境退化之间的负相关关系事实上是通过政策响应(policyresponse)来实现的.促使EKC进入下降阶段的主要原因是技术进步和经济结构变化所带来的高污染经济活动的转移,如高污染的重化工业逐渐向低污染的高技术工业过渡,工业经济逐步被服务经济所取代,等.如果减少公共政策的作用,结构转移并不足以保证经济增长必然伴随环境质量的改善.本文还考察了地理禀赋、技术、工业结构和人口密度对四川各地区经济增长和环境关系的影响,结果表明这些因素都对一个地区经济增长和环境关系产生影响.

The Empirical research on the relationship of economic growth and environment change in industrialization process in Sichuan province

The Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC)hypothesis postulates an inverted-U-shaped relationship between different pollutions and per capita income,i.e.,environmental pressure increases up to a certain level as income goes up;after that,it decreases.This paper uses panel data on Sichuan's 21 areas during 1999-2005 to examine the EKC relationship between per capita income and six categories measured pollution indicators.We find that the results are highly sensitive to different pollution indicators,functional forms and econometric methods employed.We find that EKC hypothesis for the Industrial Waste Gas establishes,but for the industrial waste water,EKC hypothesis do not establish.Then we incorporate some dimensions of natural-social changes such as geography factor,technique,industrial structure change and population density,into our model to investigate the impact of various exogenous control variables on the EKC,which can be varied along the development process depending on the income level.