Minimum variance estimators for misclassification probabilities in discriminant analysis

Let α(n₁, n₂) be the probability of classifying an observation from population Π₁ into population Π₂ using Fisher's linear discriminant function based on samples of size n₁ and n₂. A standard estimator of α, denoted by T₁, is the proportion of observations in the first sample misclassified by the discriminant function. A modification of T₁, denoted by T₂, is obtained by eliminating the observation being classified from the calculation of the discriminant function. The UMVU estimators, $\text{T}{}_1{}^1$ and $\text{T}{}_2{}^1$, of ET₁ = τ₁(n₁, n₂) and ET₂ = τ₂(n₁, n₂) = α(n₁ ? 1, n₂) are derived for the case when the populations have multivariate normal distributions with common dispersion matrix. It is shown that $\text{T}{}_1{}^1$ and $\text{T}{}_2{}^1$ are nonincreasing functions of D², the Mahalanobis sample distance. This result is used to derive the sampling distributions and moments of $\text{T}{}_1{}^1$ and $\text{T}{}_2{}^1$. It is also shown that α is a decreasing function of Δ² = (μ₁ ? μ₂)′Σ^?1(μ₁ ? μ₂). Hence, by truncating $\text{T}{}_1{}^1$ and $\text{T}{}_2{}^1$ (or any estimator) at the value of α for Σ = 0, new estimators are obtained which, for all samples, are as close or closer to α.