| Abstract: | A probabilistic technique for estimating the vulnerability of explosive surface objects by lightning has been proposed. It uses a combined criterion for initiation of upward streamer and leader discharges form the elements of the object and lightning diverters. This criterion takes into account the probabilistic nature of avalanche–streamer and streamer–leader transitions and also the trajectories of the lightning’s downward stepped leader and lightning current. It has been shown that, if the formation of the downward leader of incomplete streamer discharges from the elements of the object in an electric field is neglected (these discharges may set fire on explosive emissions), the probability of lightning-induced failure of the object is underestimated by several times compared with the calculated value. |
