Coarse-grained model of long-term supply of oil

The author proposes a coarse-grained kinetic model of the supply of oil during the next 50-year period. The oil supply, characterized by amount of oil extracted per day, is considered to depend on the oil price, existing capacities of oil extraction, the ability to find and develop new oil reserves, and also on the delay between investments and oil production. With reasonable parameters, the model predicts what may happen in realistic, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios.