| 基于模糊—证据理论的突发事件应急预案评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 肖会敏,刘云鸽,翟婷,席筱宁,张文结. 基于模糊—证据理论的突发事件应急预案评估[J]. 数学的实践与认识, 2021, 0(2): 321-328 |
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| 作者姓名： | 肖会敏 刘云鸽 翟婷 席筱宁 张文结 |
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| 作者单位： | 河南财经政法大学计算机与信息工程学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 河南高校哲学社会科学应用研究重大项目计划(2020-YYZD-02);河南省高等学校重点科研项目(20A120002);河南省社会科学界联合会调研课题(SKL-2020-3077,SKL-2020-3077)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 应急预案的优劣关系到突发事件的处理效果,要判断应急预案的优劣则需要对应急预案进行评估.基于事件的流程构建突发事件应急预案评价指标体系,采用层次分析法确定各级指标权重,基于模糊-证据理论,将专家评语转化为mass函数,并综合专家评价信息合成为指标mass函数.之后根据权重修正mass函数,建立完整的突发事件应急预案评价模...
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| 关 键 词： | 突发事件 应急预案 预案评价 证据理论 模糊评价 |
Evaluation of Emergency Plans Based on Fuzzy-Evidence Theory |
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| XIAO Hui-min,LIU Yun-ge,ZHAI Ting,XI Xiao-ning,ZHANG Wen-jie. Evaluation of Emergency Plans Based on Fuzzy-Evidence Theory[J]. Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 2021, 0(2): 321-328 |
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| Authors: | XIAO Hui-min LIU Yun-ge ZHAI Ting XI Xiao-ning ZHANG Wen-jie |
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| Affiliation: | (Henan University of Economics and Law,Zhengzhou 450046,China) |
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| Abstract: | The pros and cons of contingency plans are related to the handing effects of emergencies,in order to judge the merits and demerits of contingency plans,it is necessary to evaluate contingency plans.This paper constructs the evaluation index system of contingency plans for emergent events based on the process of events,and AHP is used to determine the weight of each index.Based on the fuzzy-evidence theory,the experts comments are transformed into mass functions,and corn prehensire the experts evaluation information synthesis index mass function.Then modify the mass function according to the weight,now a complete evaluation model of emergency plan is established.Finally,based on the data of the sudden fire accident in Luohe City,Henan province,this paper makes an empirical study and a satisfactory result is obtained. |
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| Keywords: | emergency incident contingency plan plan evaluation evidence theory fuzzy evaluation |
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