GPM(1,1,m)模型及其在中国能源消费预测中的应用

客观准确地预测能源消费,可以为政府制定社会经济发展政策提供重要参考.利用矩阵分析的思想研究了灰色预测模型的建模机理,提出了基于时间多项式的可拓形式GPM(1,1,m)模型,并分析了其理论意义.在此基础上,通过研究了时间多项式对模型参数和预测值的影响,推导了它们之间的定量关系,设计了实际建模中的优化方法和参数估计的一般形...

GPM(1,1,m)Model and Its Application in Forecasting Energy Consumption of China

Objective and accurate prediction of energy consumption can provide an important reference for governments to formulate social and economic development policies.The modeling mechanism of grey forecasting model is studied by using the idea of matrix analysis in this paper,the extension form GPM(1,1,m)Model based on the polynomial time is put forward and its theoretical significance is analyzed.Furthermore,by studying the influence of the polynomial time on model parameters and predictive value,this paper not only deduces the quantitative relationship among them,but also designs the optimization method and corresponding algorithm in practical modeling.then the quantitative relation among them are deduced and an optimization model and corresponding algorithm in practical modeling are presented.By taking advantage of GPM(1,1,m)Model,this paper based on the grey system theory to forecasts the energy consumption of China and compares in comparison with the prediction model with other grey prediction models.The model is established based on the data from 2002 to 2017 GPM(1,1,m)Model outperforms the other models obviously.